How Independent Retailers are Bracing for 2025 : Outlooks, Fears and Strategies
In our recent article, we shared the four steps and the “3 Ps” every independent retailer needs to navigate economic uncertainty with confidence. But, just as important as the advice we shared, is understanding exactly how retailers are actually feeling.
For our latest webinar, we asked participants to weigh in on their biggest concerns, how they’re preparing for the year ahead, and what helped them survive the last major downturn. Their answers reveal both the uncertainty — and the resilience — shaping independent retail in 2025.
Find out what their responses were to get a snapshot of today’s retail mindset and useful tips to navigate the economic uncertainty in 2025.
Retailers Are Split on the Outlook for 2025
In our live poll, we asked participants : “Where do you think your 2025 sales will end?”
Here’s what attendees said:
34% said they expect to end 2025 down
39% predicted they’d end the year flat
27% were more optimistic, expecting to finish the year up
While cautious sentiment dominated, over a quarter of retailers still see upside potential — showing that many are thinking ahead and preparing to act decisively in uncertain conditions.
Top Concerns on Retailers' Minds
We also asked at registration: “What’s your top concern right now regarding the economy’s impact on your business?”
Retailers voiced a wide range of worries, but a few key themes emerged:
Reduced consumer spending and demand: Many are concerned about weakening sales and cautious consumer behavior.
Rising costs and margins under pressure: Increased costs from goods, tariffs, inflation and wages are squeezing margins.
Inventory and cash flow management: Many attendees highlighted they were particularly anxious about buying the right inventory, avoiding overstock or stockout, and maintaining cash flow amid fluctuating sales and traffic.
General unpredictability: "Complete uncertainty in the market and economy" was a common refrain. Retailers are worried about tariffs, economic downturns and unpredictable policy decisions creating a volatile environment and making it difficult for them to plan and forecast effectively.
Lessons from 2008: What Helped Retailers Get Through?
To learn from past experience, we also asked: “If you were in business during the 2008–2009 recession, what helped you navigate it?”
Respondents shared :
Keeping lean operations and inventory discipline : “Discipline in fresh receipts” and “not overbuying” were cited multiple times. Many emphasized controlling inventory tightly, cutting unnecessary expenses, and focusing only on top sellers or higher-margin products to stay afloat.
Staying agile and focusing on the customer: Businesses adapted quickly by staying close to their customers, reacting weekly or even daily, and maintaining strong vendor relationships and clear communication.
Buying strategically and scaling back on non-essentials: Many reduced overhead and stayed lean thanks to disciplined buying, negotiating better vendor terms, reducing payrolls and making data-driven decisions.
Mindset: “Ignoring all the bad news and pushing forward with a plan” was one attendee’s winning strategy !
Looking Ahead
While the outlook for 2025 may feel uncertain, the takeaway from our webinar and poll answers is clear: retailers who plan, stay agile, and stay focused on the customer will be best positioned to move forward — no matter what the economy brings.
For more actionable insights, read our recap on the three tariff strategies for independent retailers to turn economic pressure into opportunity or watch the webinar replay to dive deeper into the discussion.
Need help to navigate the evolving retail landscape?Reach out toget a free consultation with Management One here.