Q2 Starts With A Calendar Shift

+5.3%
Median April Sales
Client Community

Down from Q1's +9.6%, but the deceleration was calendar-driven, not demand-driven. Three timing forces shaped the month.

Easter Pulled to March Cold Spring — Midwest & Northeast Key Vendor Deliveries Slide to May
April Results by Vertical
Positive vs. LY Negative vs. LY — Community median (+5.3%)
Toys / Hobby
+30.8%
Luxury Fashion
+12.9%
Fast Fashion
+8.5%
Footwear
+5.9%
Contemporary Fashion
+4.4%
Gifts, Stationery & Home
+4.1%
College Books / Acc.
+3.8%
Pet
+2.2%
Kids / Maternity
+0.3%
Outdoor
−1.6%
Sporting Goods
−3.9%
Western Wear
−4.1%
Median of last-month sales YoY % per client.
Emerging Trend

Sets Are Having a Moment

Nearly a year in the making with real traction now in Fast Fashion & Contemporary.

Sets have been building quietly. April confirmed the shift across silhouettes, fabrications, and occasions.

Active / Athleisure Casual Dressy / Event

Adjacent classes to monitor: Standalone Tops and Bottoms: right-size buys as Sets absorb the transaction.

  • Let M1 demand forecasting build the trajectory. Don't override; let the data establish the growth curve.
  • Rebalance adjacent class buys as Sets grow. Catch the shift before it becomes inventory pressure.
Action Required

Do Your Markdowns Have a Strategy?

Unless you're a seasonal store opening for summer, you have 2026 goods that need action now.

Avoid storewide sales. Customers cherry-pick your best items and leave exactly what you wanted to move still there, now with less margin.
  • Target specific goods. Run your aging report. Sort by highest days-on-hand. That list tells you exactly what to mark down.
  • Move decisively with 50%+ off if needed. Slow clearance costs more than a deep cut. Free up cash and OTB.
  • Avoid 20% off everything. Discounts best sellers, trains customers to wait, leaves slow goods behind.

Now at the End of May the Arc Makes Sense

Q1 came in strong at +9.6%. April pulled back to +5.3% and at the time, we said don't overreact. The calendar did it: Easter shifted to March, a cold spring stalled weather-sensitive categories, and key vendor deliveries slipped. The demand was there. The timing wasn't.

Three Things That Compressed Early Q2

1
Easter Moved to March
Shopping volume that would normally lift April landed in Q1 instead. This is a meaningful comp swing for anyone carrying gifts, apparel, or seasonal goods.
2
Cold Spring: Midwest & Northeast
Spring product needs warm weather to sell. When the weather doesn't cooperate, customers don't buy ahead of the season. They wait... and May is when they showed up.
3
Vendor Deliveries Slipped to May
Receipts that missed April arrived in May bringing fresh floor sets, renewed traffic, and the selling momentum that was temporarily on hold.

May Bounced Back

The story that April set up, May is delivering. Mother's Day and graduation shopping have been strong (two of the most reliable traffic and transaction drivers on the retail calendar). The vendor deliveries that didn't make April landed in May, refreshed floors, and gave customers a reason to come in. The retailers who held their nerve on inventory discipline in April are seeing the payoff now.

The Takeaway Across the Arc

Q1 strong. April compressed by timing. May recovering with purpose. That's not a concerning trend, that's a healthy business navigating a lumpy calendar. The underlying demand has been consistent throughout. What separated the retailers who are finishing spring strong is the same thing it always is: planning discipline, clean inventory, and the willingness to act on the data rather than wait for conditions to feel perfect.

“In a point-of-sale system, if your sales are down because you don't have enough inventory, all it's going to tell you is that your sales are down.”
Melanie Melton  ·  M1 Coach and Consultant

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Onwards and Upwards,

Marc Weiss
Co-founder and CEO
Management One

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