Seize the Season: From Holiday Rush to Year-End Reward
Every retailer asks the same thing: "What's your prediction for the holidays?"
At Management One, we've spent more than 40 years answering that question with precision, not speculation. Each vertical (fashion, fast fashion, luxury, footwear, gifts, home, toys, college bookstores, etc.) has its own rhythm. Our job is to forecast each one accurately, plan around it, and help you finish December with payables cleared and a cash surplus in hand.
When Everyone Wants a Prediction
We get it… everyone loves a forecast. And the truth is, we've been creating them for more than 40 years.
At Management One, forecasting isn't a guess, it's a discipline. Our predictive model draws on decades of retail performance data, analyzed at the class and location level across thousands of stores. That's how we identify where sales strength is building, when seasonal demand will crest, and which categories will outperform.
So yes, we predict, but we predict with precision. Rather than one static number, we build confidence ranges that evolve as the season unfolds. That's not guesswork. It's pattern recognition, refined by decades of data and partnership. And it gives you what matters most: control. Control over your inventory, timing, markdowns, and cash. Because control is the real forecast.
Beyond Inflation: The Real Meaning of Growth
Inflation makes the numbers look bigger, but not necessarily better.
Recently, a retailer asked us how to make sense of rising prices and plan effectively for the seasons ahead. Between January and June 2024, the average casual dress sold for $114, and the average dressy dress sold for $144.20. Looking ahead to 2026, those averages are projected to rise to $141 for casual dresses (a $27 increase) and $199 for dressy dresses (a $54.80 increase).
At first glance, those higher prices don’t necessarily represent growth; they represent uncertainty.
Can demand sustain at those levels?
Will customers trade down, seek alternatives, or simply buy less?
And with fewer units planned, will you still have enough to create a compelling in-store presentation?
The answer lies in planning by dollars, not by units.
If you plan by units and unit sales don't materialize, you'll end up with excess stock—and markdowns that erode margin and profitability. Conversely, if sales growth doesn't keep up with inflation—in this case, roughly 21% for casual dresses and 38% for dressy dresses—then assortment planning becomes even trickier.
Two things must happen:
You need to match or beat inflation to maintain real growth.
Even when you do, unit volume will still contract and you'll be doing more dollars with fewer pieces.
That's where assortment discipline comes in. Instead of buying three colors, you might reduce to two (or even one, such as black) and reallocate those open-to-buy dollars toward deeper size runs in your most productive sizes. Fewer choices, more depth, and greater availability where demand exists.
That's what it means to be tight and right. Over-assortment will kill profit margins faster than underbuying ever could.
That's why M1 Planning focuses on velocity and cash, not just price. We help you balance inflation, volume, and profitability, so every dollar you invest works harder and returns faster.
The Levers You Control
1. What to Buy and When
Buy to data, not emotion. Our rolling 12-month forecast keeps dollars where performance is strongest.
2. What to Let Go
Slow turns equal trapped cash. We help you identify and release it early to fund what's working.
3. What to Mark Down and When
Markdowns are strategic, not desperate. The right timing unlocks liquidity before your biggest selling weeks.
4. What to Buy Early and How to Stay Agile
Invest early in proven winners; stay flexible elsewhere. Early doesn't mean overstocked, it means intentional.
Every Season Demands Newness and Relevance
Each season needs some degree of what's new and what's next. Shoppers expect freshness, but unplanned newness drains profit. M1 Planning helps you introduce the right trends at the right time, aligning excitement with profitability. When newness is planned, it's productive. When it's random, it's risk.
The Real KPI: Cash in January
Whether you're up 3% or 8% doesn't matter as much as how much cash is left when the lights turn off December 31.
When M1 Planning is at work, you:
Turn faster
Pay bills on time
End the year liquid, not leveraged
Because ultimately sales don't create freedom… cash does. That's the true measure of a successful season.
Onwards and Upwards,
Marc